Key Takeaways
- Genius Sports signed Polymarket on Aug. 4 and Kalshi on Aug. 5.
- Genius booked prediction-market revenue in Q2, before either deal was signed.
- Q2 revenue rose 65% to $195.5M; Genius still posted a $76.7M net loss.
One Data Supplier Playing Both Sides of the Prediction-Market Rivalry
Genius Sports will supply Kalshi with real-time official data across its full soccer portfolio, including the English Premier League, Serie A, Liga MX, the Argentine Primera División, and French Ligue 1, under an agreement announced Aug. 5.
Kalshi will use the verified feeds as a single source of truth for settling sports event contracts, join Genius’s information-sharing processes, restrict certain market types, and take marketing services through Genius’s Legend-owned media properties – the review and comparison sites bettors land on when they search for a sportsbook or casino, which earn a fee each time a reader signs up with an operator. “As the prediction market ecosystem continues to expand at a rapid pace, the use of official data and integrity services is more important than ever,” said Adam Barrick, head of sports partnerships at Kalshi.
The Polymarket agreement, announced a day earlier, covers the same settlement data and integrity services but adds exclusive U.S. livestreaming rights and league intellectual property across selected competitions, including Serie A. It took effect immediately for eligible U.S. users. The Kalshi release names no start date. Neither company disclosed financial terms.
Chief executive Mark Locke said on Thursday that the two deals reflect a deliberate position: “We own the official data that the regulated ecosystem, sportsbooks, media, and now prediction markets depend on, and we own the audience layer on top of it.” He said demand is rising with prediction-market operators entering the sector. Genius told investors the Legend acquisition brings roughly 180 million owned users, and that sales and marketing costs rose $3 million against $77 million of revenue growth in the quarter.
Genius reported second-quarter results on Aug. 6: revenue up 65% to $195.5 million against $185 million of guidance, adjusted EBITDA up 54% to $52.6 million against $45 million guided, and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9%, 258 basis points above the margin implied by guidance. The company attributed that beat to early Legend synergies, execution in media, and an incremental contribution from prediction markets. Because both partnerships were announced after the June 30 quarter end, neither produced that contribution. Genius raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $285 million to $295 million.
Net loss widened to $76.7 million from $53.9 million, attributed largely to costs tied to Legend, and the half-year loss reached $132.2 million. Media technology revenue, the division Legend sits in, rose 192.8% to $78.2 million with only two months of contribution; betting technology rose 27.5% to $117.4 million on renewal pricing and expanded services. Genius closed the Legend acquisition on May 1 in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion, bringing Covers.com, Casino.org, and Casino Guru under the same roof as its official-data operation.
Investors read the two announcements as a repricing. Genius shares rose 14.3% on Tuesday following the Polymarket news and added roughly 2% more on Wednesday after the Kalshi deal, closing at $8.33, up almost 25% on the week.
Kalshi named Sportradar an official data provider in June for MLB, NHL, MLS, and UFC content, with live odds, integrity monitoring, and marketing attached. Nothing in the Genius announcement says it displaces that arrangement or grants exclusivity, and the soccer portfolio covers different leagues. Both platforms also worked with Genius during the World Cup, when it supplied official data for Kalshi’s Argentine Football Association partnership and supported Polymarket’s Liga MX sponsorship in the U.S. This week’s deals convert those single-property arrangements into platform-level relationships.
The Block’s dashboard puts July combined volume across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US at a record $50.59 billion, up 7.8% from a June baseline the dashboard has since revised upward to $46.95 billion. Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion of it. Trading volume does not equal the total money staked – contracts are resold repeatedly, so the figure overstates funds at risk. Even with the World Cup now firmly in the rear-view mirror, it makes sense for these platforms to lean further into soccer properties in the autumn. Open interest across the three venues fell from about $2 billion at the start of July to $1.2 billion by month’s end, after the July 19 final.
Polymarket’s international platform fell 26% to $7.9 billion even as its U.S. arm rose 54% to $5 billion. The legal ground shifted in the same week: on Aug. 4, a federal judge granted Utah summary judgment against Kalshi, rejecting every preemption theory the exchange raised over its sports event contracts, a decision it is appealing to the Tenth Circuit.
