TLDR
- ASTS stock jumped 12.15% ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings report, due after Monday’s market close
- Analysts expect a loss of $0.2125 per share on revenue of $37.5 million
- A BlueBird 7 satellite was lost after a failed Blue Origin launch; insurance is expected to cover it
- Amazon’s $10.8 billion Globalstar deal and SpaceX’s Starlink are increasing competitive pressure
- Options markets are pricing in a ~12.1% post-earnings move
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock jumped over 12% on Monday, trading at $75.05, as investors positioned ahead of the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings report due after the closing bell.
The stock has pulled back sharply from its 52-week high of $129.89, meaning Monday’s rally still leaves it well below peak levels.
Wall Street expects a loss of $0.2125 per share on revenue of $37.5 million for the March quarter. That would be an improvement on the prior quarter’s $0.26 per share loss, though revenue is expected to fall from the $54.3 million posted in Q4.
EPS estimates have drifted 15.1% lower over the past 60 days, a sign analysts have grown more cautious heading into the report.
Satellite Loss Puts Spotlight on Deployment Plans
Last month, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket deployed AST’s BlueBird 7 satellite too low in orbit. The satellite has since been de-orbited and is considered a total loss, though AST says it is covered by insurance.
The company originally targeted 45 to 60 satellite deployments this year. Satellite analyst Tim Farrar now estimates the actual figure will land between 21 and 42, with the launch vehicle currently grounded by the FAA.
Investors will be watching closely for any update on revised timelines and alternative launch arrangements.
Management had set a revenue target of $150 million to $200 million for 2026, leaning on a stronger commercial launch cadence in the second half of the year. Analysts are projecting $1 billion in revenue for 2027.
Competition Heats Up in Direct-to-Device Market
The competitive landscape has shifted. Amazon struck a deal to acquire Globalstar for roughly $10.8 billion, marking a direct move into the satellite-to-device space. Deutsche Bank responded by cutting its AST price target, citing expected pricing pressure.
SpaceX’s Starlink already holds a leading position in the market and has live commercial services running with T-Mobile.
The direct-to-device market is projected to grow from $570 million in 2025 to $2.64 billion by 2030, which is why execution matters here.
Of 10 analysts covering ASTS, three rate it a buy, five hold, and two sell. The mean price target sits at $83.90, implying around 12% upside from current levels. Targets range from Scotiabank’s $41.20 to Clear Street’s $115.
Pre-earnings options activity is running at 1.6x normal volume, with calls outpacing puts 3-to-1. The options market is pricing in a move of roughly 12.1%, or about $10, following the earnings release. The median post-earnings move over the past eight quarters has been 9%.
The broader space-tech sector also traded higher Monday, adding fuel to the ASTS move.
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