Key Takeaways:
- Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing warns bitcoin could drop 38% to $50,000 as a bear flag pattern takes hold.
- Soloway told David Lin that recession odds have shifted to 2027, driven by $700 billion in annual AI capex from mega-cap firms.
- Natural gas stands as Soloway’s lone near-term buy, with a breakout above $2.88 signaling a potential rotation from oil.
Soloway Tells David Lin Bitcoin Faces 38% Drop, Stays Short the S&P 500
In a recent video published on TDLR, Gareth Soloway drew a direct line between today’s stock market and conditions in 2000. The Nasdaq just pierced 25,000, he noted to host David Lin, the same way it pierced 5,000 before it topped out. He called the current environment a late-stage bull market, one where a handful of names carry the index while sectors like software are already down 20% year-to-date.
The IGF expanded tech software exchange-traded fund (ETF) illustrates the point, Soloway noted. Despite the index sitting at all-time highs, that ETF has shed roughly a fifth of its value in 2026, a divergence Soloway says traders should not ignore.
He remains short the S&P 500, though he is legging in gradually rather than committing all at once. His first downside target is former all-time high resistance, which now becomes technical support. A deeper flush could eventually bring the index back to the midpoint of its parallel channel from COVID lows.
On the economy, Soloway pushed his recession call out to 2027. He credited $700 billion in annual AI capital spending from companies like Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft for keeping growth alive. Jerome Powell himself acknowledged at the most recent FOMC meeting that data center buildout has been a primary driver of the economy. When those companies pull back their spend, Soloway remarked, that is when the recession hits.
Inflation, he told Lin, is a two-part problem. The spike tied to oil prices above $100 a barrel will likely prove temporary, with political pressure ahead of the midterms pushing the president to bring prices down. But long-term inflation, already running around 2.7%, could settle in the 3 to 4% range given government spending running at roughly $1 trillion in new debt every quarter.
On gold, Soloway said he is trading it like a risk asset because that is what it has become. He is neutral on short-term swings and is watching $3,900 as first major support, with $3,500 coming into play only if the Nasdaq drops 20% or more. His long-term view remains bullish. He told Lin that five years from now, gold is much higher.
Bitcoin is where Soloway’s outlook has shifted most. He was bullish on his last TDLR appearance. Now he is neutral at best and bearish on a directional basis. The consolidation pattern between $80,000 and $85,000 is a bear flag, he stressed, similar to one that resolved lower earlier in the cycle. Unless bitcoin clears $85,000, his next downside target is $50,000, a drop of roughly 38%.
Soloway pointed to structural headwinds for crypto. The administration’s handling of coin launches, what he described as rug-pull-style activity, and damaged trust. The CLARITY Act moving through Congress offers little clear upside. And investors who might have parked capital in bitcoin are instead chasing semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure plays.
The 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.5% is the signal the bond market is not giving the all-clear, Soloway explained during the interview. The stock market, driven by retail inflows and index momentum, is ignoring it. That divergence is one more reason he is adding to short positions on the S&P and the Nasdaq.
Natural gas is the one trade he is willing to step up on. A breakout above $2.88 could draw capital that rotates out of oil. Data centers need power, nuclear is not ready, and natural gas is cheap relative to oil. That combination, Soloway told Lin, makes it the most attractive near-term position outside of cash and selective shorts.
Asked which falls first, bitcoin or stocks, Soloway detailed that stocks are more overdue for a drop, but if the Nasdaq keeps sliding, bitcoin investors will panic and the cryptocurrency will play catch-up fast.
