TLDR
- Intel stock surged 220% over the past 12 months, hitting a 25-year high of $70.32
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan cut over 20,000 jobs and returned Intel to positive free cash flow in H2 2025
- Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel; Intel is working with Alphabet and Elon Musk’s Terafab on AI
- Q1 2026 earnings are due April 23 — expectations are high, raising volatility risk
- One analyst sees a path to $150 per share by 2029 based on margin recovery and earnings growth
Intel has had one of the more dramatic reversals in recent memory. Coming off a multi-year low below $18 in June 2025, the stock climbed to a 25-year high of $70.32, gaining 58% in just nine trading days at one point. The move has left a lot of investors wondering if they missed the boat — or if there’s still time to get on.
The turnaround story centers largely on one man: Lip-Bu Tan, who took over as CEO in March 2025. A venture capitalist and turnaround specialist, Tan previously oversaw a 3,200% gain at Cadence Design Systems over 12 years. At Intel, he moved fast. He cut more than 20,000 jobs and pulled back on cash spending. Free cash flow, which had been cumulatively negative by $44 billion between 2022 and 2025, turned positive in the second half of last year.
Intel’s product lineup has also gotten a boost. The company recently launched its Core Series 3 mobile processors built on the 18A process, targeting everyday AI tasks and improved battery life for consumer PCs.
AI Partnerships Signal Strategic Shift
Intel isn’t just cutting costs — it’s going after the AI market directly. The company is working with Alphabet on AI and cloud infrastructure. It’s also helping Elon Musk build “Terafab,” a chip-making joint venture between SpaceX and Tesla.
Then there’s Nvidia. In September, Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel to produce custom x86 server CPUs that integrate with Nvidia’s GPU products. Analyst Ben Reitzes of Melius Research put it plainly: “The demand for the x86 server CPU has gone through the roof at hyperscalers. The x86 became an AI chip.”
That’s a real shift in how the market is thinking about Intel’s role in AI infrastructure.
Still, the rally has pushed valuation into uncomfortable territory. Intel now trades at around 95 times expected earnings — above Nvidia, Taiwan Semi, Broadcom, and AMD. Gross margins sit below 40%, compared to Taiwan Semi’s 55% and Nvidia’s 75%.
Manufacturing Yields Remain a Key Hurdle
Part of the margin gap comes down to manufacturing. Intel is currently outsourcing an estimated 30% of its wafers to Taiwan Semi while building up its own fab capacity. Its yields on the newest chip-making process are estimated at around 70%, versus Taiwan Semi’s 90%.
If those yields improve as the process matures, margins should follow. Analyst Reitzes estimates Intel could earn $7 per share by 2029. At a typical chip sector multiple of 22 times forward earnings, that math points to a $150 stock.
Wall Street remains cautious. Only about one in five analysts covering Intel has a Buy rating, well below the S&P 500 average of 55%. The consensus price target sits at $51.25 — well below where the stock is trading.
Institutional investors are quietly adding exposure. ZEGA Investments opened a new position in Q4. EVP David Zinsner bought nearly $250,000 worth of stock in January.
Intel reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 23.
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