TLDR
- Piper Sandler slashed Coinbase price target from $270 to $150, citing weak Q1 2026 guidance with subscription revenue midpoint 27% below consensus expectations
- Coinbase Q4 2025 earnings missed estimates with adjusted EBITDA of $566 million despite revenues of $1.71 billion beating by 3%, as stock fell 37.61% year-to-date
- Benchmark cut price target 37% to $267 from $421 but maintained buy rating, reducing full-year 2026 EPS estimate by 21% to $5.34
- Institutional transaction revenue jumped 37% to $185 million driven by Deribit acquisition, while subscription revenue reached 43% of total at $727.4 million
- Coinbase ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in cash and authorized additional $2 billion in buybacks after repurchasing $1.7 billion in Q4
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Coinbase stock whipsawed this week after fourth-quarter earnings sparked sharp downgrades from Wall Street analysts. The crypto exchange platform now faces a price target range spanning $150 to $440 as firms debate whether recent weakness reflects temporary market headwinds or deeper structural concerns.
Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN
Piper Sandler delivered the harshest verdict Friday. The firm cut its price target from $270 to $150 while maintaining a neutral rating on the stock. The move followed Coinbase’s fourth-quarter report showing adjusted EBITDA of $566 million, which missed analyst expectations despite total net revenues of $1.71 billion coming in 3% above estimates.
The real pain came from forward guidance. Coinbase projected Q1 2026 subscription and services revenues between $550 million and $630 million. The midpoint sits 27% below what Wall Street anticipated. That disconnect prompted Piper Sandler to slash its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates from $2.54 and $3.07 to $1.42 and $2.59 respectively.
Transaction revenue told a similar story. Coinbase reported approximately $420 million in quarter-to-date trading revenues through February 10. That figure tracks toward a 7% quarter-over-quarter decline. The company’s blended take rate for trading volumes came in at 36 basis points, just above Piper’s 34 basis point estimate.
Benchmark took a different approach despite also cutting its price target. Analyst Mark Palmer reduced his target from $421 to $267 but kept a buy rating. He lowered his full-year 2026 EPS estimate by 21% to $5.34, with first-quarter estimates sitting 19% below consensus at $0.96.
Business Mix Shifts as Crypto Markets Weaken
Palmer’s thesis centers on what’s happening beneath the surface. Institutional transaction revenue jumped 37% sequentially to $185 million in Q4. The first full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto options exchange Coinbase acquired for $2.9 billion last August, drove much of that growth.
CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to derivatives as a major growth driver for 2026 and beyond. Stablecoin revenue rose 3% to $364 million despite declining interest rates and crypto prices. Average USDC balances hit an all-time high during the quarter.
The revenue mix shift stands out most clearly. Subscription and services revenue of $727.4 million made up roughly 43% of net revenue in Q4. Full-year 2025 subscription and services revenue hit $2.8 billion, up 23% year-over-year and 5.5 times the 2021 cycle peak.
Coinbase now claims 12 products generating over $100 million in annualized revenue. Paid Coinbase One subscribers approach 1 million. The company has rolled out equities trading with nearly 10,000 stock tickers and launched prediction markets initially powered by Kalshi.
Fourth-Quarter Results Show Mixed Performance
Q4 net revenue of $1.71 billion declined 5% sequentially, matching management guidance but missing the $1.81 billion Wall Street expected. Transaction revenue fell 6% to $983 million as total crypto market cap dropped 11% during the period.
On a GAAP basis, Coinbase swung to a $667 million net loss. A $718 million unrealized loss on its crypto portfolio and $395 million in strategic investment losses drove the red ink. Operating expenses came in at $1.51 billion, slightly below forecasts.
Other firms weighed in with mixed views. Bernstein reiterated an outperform rating with a $440 target, arguing the stock trades too cheaply at roughly 11 times EV to 2025 earnings. Canaccord cut its target to $300 from $400 but maintained a buy rating.
Coinbase ended 2025 with $11.3 billion in cash. The company repurchased $1.7 billion in stock during Q4 and early February, fully offsetting 2025 dilution from stock-based compensation. The board authorized an additional $2 billion in buybacks, and management guided to flat expenses for Q1 2026.
