The market is not seeing the conviction we would have anticipated a few months ago, but at the same time, the year-end pump could be the foundation for a proper uptrend in 2026. Bitcoin has finally hit $90,000 but already retraced, Shiba Inu is ready to conquer 26 EMA and XRP is staying neutral.
Shiba Inu ready to fight
Shiba Inu is getting close to a technically crucial point that will probably determine how it moves into 2026. SHIB has begun to stabilize and recover from local lows following months of consistent downward pressure, but the move is now headed straight into its first significant roadblock: the 26-period EMA.
The price is once again testing this level from below, which has served as dynamic resistance during the decline. SHIB’s recovery has been cautious rather than aggressive thus far. Momentum is increasing without displaying excess, and volume is still moderate. Although the RSI is rising and has moved out of oversold territory, it is not indicating a surge in demand. Instead of a clear breakout, that combination typically comes before a decision point.
The consequences are clear if SHIB fails at the 26 EMA. Rejecting this would probably render the short-term recovery structure invalid and allow recent lows to be retested. That scenario would eliminate the majority of the gains made during the late-December bounce and force SHIB back into pure damage-control mode going into the new year given how stretched the chart already is. Failure is not the base case, though. The way the price is responding to resistance is the more fascinating read.
Clearly the pressure to sell has decreased. Wicks are forming on the downside, down candles are getting smaller and buyers are entering the market earlier than they did in November. That is not just a change in price, it is a change in behavior. The structure is significantly altered if SHIB is successful in regaining and retaining the 26 EMA.
That would be the first indication that the downtrend is losing ground, paving the way for higher moving averages and quickening the momentum for the upside. In that case, as sidelined participants reengage, what initially appears to be a slow grind could quickly become a sharper rally.
Bitcoin’s end-of-year run
Following weeks of sluggish price action, Bitcoin is once again doing what it has done numerous times: seizing a late-December bid. As the year comes to an end, Bitcoin has begun to stabilize and move higher after declining through November and the first part of December.
This pattern has become almost seasonal for the asset. In the past, the end of the year has been when Bitcoin typically finds support. As funds close books, positioning becomes more defensive, aggressive selling stops and liquidity is reduced. Because of this combination, prices can frequently rise without the need for large volumes.
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The current rally is consistent with that model. Bitcoin has recovered short-term levels in the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 range after rising from its recent lows in the mid-$80,000s. Technically speaking, this move appears to be more of a relief than a complete reversal of the trend. The larger structure is still corrective, and Bitcoin is still below its main moving averages.
The 200-day average is significantly above the price, while the 50- and 100-day averages are sloping downward. Although momentum indicators have improved and the RSI has moved back above 50, they are still not in overbought territory. That implies stabilization rather than acceleration.
There is a history of year-end rallies like this. Due to positioning resets, tax concerns and a renewed sense of optimism for the upcoming year, Bitcoin has frequently shown strength in late December and early January. What typically happens next is the issue. In many previous cycles, these rallies subsided by February as institutional flows stabilized, full liquidity reappeared and speculative excess came to terms with reality.
XRP eyeing $2 again
XRP is circling the $2 mark once more, a price range that has frequently determined sentiment over the previous few months. The price has stabilized close to the lower edge of its declining channel following a protracted corrective phase, and buyers are determining whether a second attempt at $2 is feasible.
Although the setup is well-known the results are not assured. XRP is currently trading below all significant moving averages. Any upward move begins as a countertrend rally because the 50-, 100- and 200-day lines are still above and sloping downward. Although volume is exhibiting early indications of expansion and the RSI has recovered from oversold conditions, momentum has somewhat improved, but the structure is still brittle.
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In the bullish scenario, XRP steadily rises while defending the lower channel support. The price could first challenge the 26- and 50-period averages if there were a clear break above short-term resistance, which would lessen the immediate sell pressure. If that occurs in tandem with increased volume, XRP may return to the $2 range rather quickly.
This move would only need persistent demand and a lack of aggressive selling, not a complete reversal of the trend. In this case, $2 is not a final top but rather a liquidity magnet, and even a brief reclamation would significantly change sentiment. The bearish scenario is easier. The recent bounce turns into another lower high if XRP is rejected at moving average resistance and is unable to maintain current levels.
That would probably lead to a retest of local lows and strengthen the general downtrend. In this case, $2 remains unattainable due to a lack of momentum rather than a single rejection. Buyers retreat volume declines, and prices move lower or sideways.
