- Ethereum has gained over 15% since dropping to $3,435 two weeks ago.
- ETH price is trading inside a bull flag pattern above the 200-day EMA.
- MVRV bands show ETH is stabilizing near $3,900, a historic rally zone.
- A sustained move above support could push ETH toward the $4,500 level.
Ethereum (ETH) has bounced back over 15% after touching a recent low near $3,435. Now trading above $3,900, the price is showing early signs of a bullish continuation pattern. With a key support level holding and multiple technical indicators aligning, market observers are watching closely to see if ETH can reach the $4,500 mark before October ends.
ETH Forms Bull Flag Pattern Above Key Support
Ethereum is trading inside a bull flag pattern, often seen during market consolidations in an uptrend. The pattern formed after ETH climbed from its April low near $2,500 to a peak around $4,950 in August.
The current price rebound started near the lower boundary of the flag, close to the $3,500 level. This area also includes the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has acted as a long-term support in previous uptrends. A move above the upper boundary of the channel could push the price toward $4,450–$4,500.
Analysts have pointed to a double bottom pattern as an additional signal. This setup suggests the next resistance lies near $4,750, although a breakout to that level would depend on continued momentum.
On-Chain Data Supports Price Stability
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands show ETH is holding near the mean band at approximately $3,900. In past cycles, this level has served as a base for further price increases.
Data from Glassnode indicates that each time ETH stabilized around the mean, the price moved toward the +1σ band. This band is currently near $5,000. Previous examples include early 2021, mid-2023, and early 2024, where the price rebounded strongly after touching the mean level.
As of now, ETH remains above this support band. This points to the market entering a correction phase within a broader upward trend, rather than entering a reversal or full breakdown.
Analysts See $4,500 as a Key Short-Term Target
Trader Luca and analyst FOUR have both pointed to the $4,500 level as a short-term target. According to Luca, ETH is holding above a key “weekly bull market support band.” If the price continues to respect this support, a breakout toward $4,500 remains on the table.
Meanwhile, FOUR’s chart points to a neckline resistance at $4,750, which could act as the next area of interest after a move above $4,500. While this level could be tested, it depends on ETH sustaining its current momentum and avoiding a breakdown.
A move above $4,500 could also set the stage for a bull flag breakout, which would aim for a higher target near $5,200 in the coming month.
Breakdown Risk Remains if Key Support Fails
Despite the bullish setup, there are risks to watch. The area around $3,550 remains a critical support. It includes both the bull flag’s lower boundary and the 200-day EMA.
If ETH drops below this support, it may signal a breakdown of the pattern. In that case, prices could move down toward the $3,000–$3,200 range. This would invalidate the current structure and delay any further rally attempts.
So far, buyers have stepped in at this level, but a loss of momentum or shift in broader market sentiment could change that. Traders will likely monitor volume and trend confirmation before placing large bets on a breakout.
