Catch the full replay of our most recent Trading Spaces below or get the TL;DR in the recap that follows:
Uptober Incoming? Key Levels to Watch https://t.co/PTT0NjoGxy
— Kraken (@krakenfx) October 3, 2025
TL;DR
- Majors look constructive. BTC is leading with bullish EMA crosses on lower timeframes and a strong series of higher lows. ETH has reclaimed its range and is building trend, albeit a touch behind BTC.
- Key BTC battleground: Around $121K into prior ATH supply. Dip zones: mid-range support in the $116K–$117.3K area; lose that and the mood changes.
- Market structure > narratives. Diagonals plus EMAs and clean level flips are powering Dentoshi’s bias. “Strong markets break and push through resistance.”
- Alts need momentum. “Others” and TOTAL3 are working to break out of months-long ranges; BTC dominance may pop first (alts lag initially, then follow if breadth confirms).
- Charts we covered: ETHENA (range reclaim off the 200 EMA), XRP (year-long base, fresh breakout attempt), DOGE (slow grind, potential for violent move when it goes), PENGU (held higher-timeframe structure; wants a clean LTF reclaim).
Bitcoin (trend: strength with shallow pullbacks)
Context: After a shaky late-September, BTC printed a higher low, defended logical levels (e.g., January’s local high), and then flipped EMAs bullish on lower timeframes.
Why it matters: In Dentoshi’s playbook, EMA cross + diagonal break + mid-range reclaim = momentum regime.
Levels to watch: Resistance: $121K and prior ATH supply (wicky/choppy is normal here).
Support: $116K–$117.3K mid-range. Lose it and we risk a bearish retest of the breakdown level that spooked the market last week.
What we’re seeing on the majors
Ethereum (trend: improving, a step behind BTC)
Last Trading Spaces, Dentoshi looked at this ETH setup and said “If this box breaks, we’re going to trade the next box, which is where we want to start looking for longs.”
Which is exactly what happened: We dumped into the low 3K’s / high 4K’s, longed those levels and then saw ETH close back inside its range, followed by a new uptrend.
- Takeaway: Majors-first leadership (BTC → ETH → alts) is healthier than an “alts-first” pop. That extends cycles rather than blows them off prematurely.
Bitcoin dominance and the altcoin backdrop
- BTC dominance: Could potentially pop near-term, which can dent alts vs. BTC in the short window—but could set the stage for a broader alt move later if majors hold trend.
- “Others” & TOTAL3: Both defended daily EMAs and are trying to print a higher high to escape the “doom range” that’s capped alts since July. Confirmation = cleaner alt beta.
Solana: strong structure, ETF chatter is a wild card
- SOL’s EMAs are aligned, candles constructive, but there’s looming resistance overhead (prior highs/ATH area).
- On the ETF headline risk: short-term impact is unpredictable (sometimes “buy the rumor, sell the news”); focus on structure first, narrative second.
Setups we walked through
ETHENA
- Plan: Bids layered into the 200 EMA and range floor from last stream; daily close back inside the range = confirmation.
- Still actionable zone: A clean LTF demand around range low reclaim for adds (if not already in).
- Invalidation: A decisive reject/reclaim-fail back below the range and 200 EMA.
- Targets: Psychological $1.00, mid-range $0.73, range highs $0.85 – logical partials on the way up.
XRP
- Story: A year-long base since January with EMAs respected. Fresh diagonal break now has room to test mid-’25 highs and the July ATH.
- Why Dentoshi likes it: “Bigger the base, bigger the move.” Among the few majors/alts that kept structure through chop.
- Caveat: Treat it as a fun, structured trade — clear invalidation and partials.
DOGE
- Then → now: Dipped into the exact 1D MA zone we marked out last Trading Spaces and move up from there since.
- Plan: Either hold/flip the prior swing-high shelf for continuation or wait for a clean dip back into demand. When DOGE moves, it can move fast.
PENGU
- Progress: Breakout didn’t stick, but higher-timeframe structure remains constructive (think double-bottom vibe with daily EMA support).
- Trigger: LTF EMAs crossing up + reclaim of the recent breakdown shelf. Watch the yearly open and local highs as first supply.
The process: Dentoshi’s “if/then” method
- If majors hold mid-range + EMAs → then press longs/continuations.
- If mid-range fails → then step aside and look for the next demand level; don’t round-trip profits.
- If breadth (TOTAL3/“Others”) breaks and holds → then expand into alt beta.
This “if/then” framing keeps emotions in check and turns entries/exits into simple, falsifiable decisions.
Playbook for the next 1-2 weeks
- Respect the levels. BTC showing strong signs of momentum above $121K = green light. A cool-off (time-based or a small price dip) is fine as long as the $116K–$117.3K mid-range holds.
- Majors first. Let BTC lead, ETH confirm, then select alts.
- Breadth confirmation. Want TOTAL3/“Others” to break and hold above supply.
- Two entry archetypes only:
- Breakout-strength (fresh highs + HL support on LTF).
- Retest-logic (flush into pre-mapped demand with rising EMAs beneath).
- Risk management: Position so that your invalidation = known % of portfolio risk. No hero sizing into resistance.
Final word
Right now, the market looks the way you want it to look when BTC is leading: shallow pullbacks, easy EMA flips, strength through resistance. If that continues, ETH and select alts should follow. If the mid-range gives way, respect it and rotate to the next plan. Let the market come to your levels.
Watch the replays and catch the next session on X:
Follow @krakenfx and @krakenpro for stream times and highlights.
Want more of Dentoshi’s process? See our recent recaps and deep dives.
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