TLDR
- Q3 2025 EPS was $10.54, beating estimates by 5.4%
- Resort EBITDA rose 3% year-to-date despite 3% fewer skier visits
- Season pass revenue grew 4%, driving total net revenue up 3%
- 2025 guidance revised due to soft spring visitation and CEO transition costs
- Shares down 17.7% YTD, underperforming S&P 500
Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) closed at $154.90 on June 5, up 0.44% for the day.
The company reported Q3 2025 earnings on June 5, posting $10.54 per share, topping the Zacks estimate of $10. This represents a 5.4% earnings surprise and a year-over-year improvement from $9.54 per share. However, revenue came in slightly light at $1.3 billion, just below the consensus estimate of $1.31 billion.
Despite a 3% decline in skier visits, Vail achieved a 3% year-to-date increase in resort reported EBITDA. This performance was largely driven by a 4% rise in season pass revenue, which helped stabilize net resort revenue. Ancillary spending from destination guests also supported profitability, particularly in ski school and dining segments.
Vail Resorts, $MTN, Q3-25. Results:
🔴 -1% Post-Market📊 Adj. EPS: $10.54 🟢
💰 Revenue: $1.30B 🔴
🔎 Visitation from lift ticket guests was below expectations, but strong passholder spending and tight cost control supported solid results amid challenging conditions. pic.twitter.com/8YYMWy7YYV— EarningsTime (@Earnings_Time) June 5, 2025
Updated Guidance Reflects Short-Term Pressures
Vail Resorts issued updated full-year guidance for fiscal 2025. Resort reported EBITDA is expected between $831 million and $851 million. Net income is projected in the range of $264 million to $298 million. The company also highlighted $9 million in one-time expenses related to the CEO transition and cited a $7 million negative impact from foreign exchange movements.
The decline in uncommitted lift ticket visitation, especially in spring, contributed to lower expectations. Pass product sales for the upcoming North American ski season declined 1% in units but increased 2% in revenue. Australia’s pass sales rose sharply, up 20% in units and 8% in dollars.
Balance Sheet and Capital Returns
As of April 30, 2025, Vail Resorts held total liquidity of $1.6 billion, including $467 million in cash. Net debt stood at 2.6x trailing twelve-month reported EBITDA. The company maintained its capital investment target of $249–$254 million for calendar 2025.
Vail declared a quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share, payable July 9. It repurchased approximately 200,000 shares at an average of $161, totaling $30 million. The board increased the share repurchase authorization by 1.5 million shares.
Stock Performance and Outlook
MTN shares have underperformed the broader market, falling 17.7% year-to-date compared to the S&P 500’s 0.98% gain. Over a three-year span, the stock is down 31.88%. Vail Resorts currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating an expected market-level performance.
Future performance will depend heavily on changes to earnings estimates and upcoming skier demand trends. The current consensus expects a Q4 loss of $4.61 per share on $277.2 million in revenue. For fiscal 2025, consensus estimates stand at $7.44 EPS on $2.98 billion in revenue.
