TLDR
- Nvidia stock is down over 4% this week following the company’s GTC conference
- Shares formed a bearish “death cross” pattern as the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average
- Year-to-date, NVDA stock has declined approximately 13%
- Concerns about AI spending and Trump’s tariff threats have contributed to the decline
- Despite recent stock weakness, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish with most maintaining buy ratings
Nvidia shares continued their downward trend this week, falling more than 4% despite the company’s annual GTC conference that many refer to as “the Super Bowl of AI.” The stock dropped about 2% on Friday alone, extending its year-to-date decline to approximately 13%.
The Santa Clara-based chipmaker has hit a technical warning sign that has traders concerned. On Thursday, Nvidia’s 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day average, forming what market technicians call a bearish “death cross” pattern.
This pattern has historically signaled further losses for the stock. The last time this occurred in April 2022, Nvidia shares fell more than 30% over the following two months.
“It’s got a lot of negative momentum,” said Larry Tentarelli, founder and chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “Nvidia is a very difficult chart.”
The stock’s decline comes despite CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech on Tuesday at the GTC conference, where he announced new AI hardware, software, and technology partnerships.
Huang also held a question-and-answer session with financial analysts on Wednesday and hosted three panel discussions on quantum computing on Thursday. However, these events failed to generate the enthusiasm needed to reverse the stock’s recent slide.
Broader concerns about future AI spending have weighed on Nvidia shares. News from China’s DeepSeek combined with uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment has created headwinds for the company.
President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and potential trade wars have also contributed to investor caution. An index tracking the “magnificent seven” big tech companies, which includes Nvidia, is down more than 15% this year.
Solid Fundamentals
The recent weakness in Nvidia stock has occurred despite solid fundamentals. The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is at one of its lowest levels in years.
Investors appear to be waiting for more clarity on whether Nvidia can deliver on its promised growth, including a projected jump in first-quarter revenue to $43 billion.
In the broader AI sector, investors are looking for more tangible returns on investment before committing to beaten-down tech stocks. This would help boost confidence that high spending levels on AI will continue.
“What the market is saying with Nvidia is, ‘we’re concerned about the economy, we’re concerned about DeepSeek,’” Tentarelli noted. He added that if any major tech companies signal they’re slowing their promised AI spending this year, it could spell trouble for chipmakers.
Another challenge for Nvidia investors is the lack of near-term catalysts following the GTC conference. This makes the broader economic environment even more important for the stock’s performance.
Richard Ross, Evercore ISI’s head of technical analysis, pointed to April 2 as a key date to watch. That’s when Trump has said his administration will levy reciprocal tariffs on foreign trading partners.
Wall St. Still Bullish
Despite the recent stock weakness, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish on Nvidia. According to FactSet, the stock has 62 buy ratings and only five hold ratings.
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur maintained his buy rating with a price target of $170. “We are encouraged by the market growth opportunities and, more importantly, Nvidia’s ability to leverage its silicon architecture across multiple end-markets and applications,” Sur said in a client note.
Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar kept his buy rating with a $175 price target, stating: “We continue to believe Nvidia is best positioned to capture an increasing share of the world’s AI buildout.”
Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained his outperform rating and $168 price target, noting that Nvidia’s GTC conference “affirms its hardware/software dominance, road map execution and market expansion, driving a more than $1 trillion data center market.”
Nvidia stock reached its all-time high of $153.13 on January 7, 2025, but has since retreated by about 23%.
